Positioning spread
| Benchmark | Task acc | Confidence | F₁ | Leans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SQuAD (factual recall) | 0.62 | 0.41 | 0.67 | -0.21 cautious |
| MMLU-Pro (knowledge) | 0.73 | 0.81 | 0.86 | +0.08 overconfident |
| LegalBench (legal reasoning) | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.85 | +0.00 calibrated |
| MathBench (competition math) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | +0.00 calibrated |
| OmniMath (advanced math) | 0.85 | 0.94 | 0.92 | +0.09 overconfident |
| SciCode (scientific code) | 0.58 | 0.65 | 0.74 | +0.07 overconfident |
In the full cloud
GPT-5.2 conditions all other model/condition points equal relative confidence and pass rate
Pairwise footprint
Match accuracy controls for the performance base-rate gap
GPT-5.2 pairs
18/ 171
GPT-5.2 mean tau
+0.022
All-pairs mean
+0.037
GPT-5.2 p<0.05
5(27.8%)
all model pairs (observed) base-rate-matched null calibration-preserving null GPT-5.2 pair (filled = p<0.05) GPT-5.2 mean all-pairs mean