← Atlas home Benchmark view 20 models

SQuAD (factual recall)

Unaided means: answer the question without the supporting context passageProbes: Prospective + Counterfactual

Operating-point board

SQuAD (factual recall) · Prospective · Fβ β
#ModelFβ ?Prec ?Rec ?Task acc ?
1 Gemini 3 Pro0.7850.770.800.65
2 Gemini 3 Flash0.7820.700.880.59
3 Gemini 2.5 Pro0.7640.710.830.58
4 Claude Sonnet 4.50.7530.780.720.59
5 GPT-4o0.7390.690.800.54
6 DeepSeek R10.7330.760.700.57
7 Claude Haiku 4.50.7160.790.650.48
8 Mistral Medium 3.10.7030.650.770.52
9 GPT-4o mini0.6860.560.880.45
10 Gemini 2.0 Flash0.6830.580.820.45
11 GPT-5.20.6730.840.560.62
12 Gemini 2.5 Flash0.6700.580.790.45
13 Mistral Small 3.20.6660.570.790.44
14 Llama 3.1 70B0.6430.650.640.45
15 Claude 3.5 Sonnet0.6430.790.540.56
16 Llama 3.30.5930.640.550.45
17 Qwen 2.5 72B0.5720.740.470.47
18 DeepSeek Chat0.5670.780.450.55
19 Claude 3 Haiku0.5540.550.560.40
20 Qwen 2.5 Coder 32B0.4760.311.000.31

Pairwise signal on SQuAD

Observed correlation
0.037
mean τ-b · 0 = no signal
Baseline correlation
0.000
permutation null · ≈ 0
Model pairs
171
unit = pair, not model
Significant pairs
46.2%
p<0.05 after FDR · not effect size
-1.0-0.50.00.51.0Pair signal: do confidence gaps rank performance gaps? (Kendall tau-b)
Observed model pairs Base-rate-matched null Calibration-preserving null 5%-95% observed: -0.026 to 0.127

Confidence structure: the shared-difficulty factor

0PC1 = 54.9% of variance??Eigenvalue rank →Variance share19 models · 1 negative eigenvalue