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OmniMath (advanced math)

Unaided means: solve the problem without hints or worked solutionProbes: Prospective + Counterfactual

Operating-point board

OmniMath (advanced math) · Prospective · Fβ β
#ModelFβ ?Prec ?Rec ?Task acc ?
1 Gemini 3 Pro0.9410.890.990.88
2 GPT-5.20.9230.880.970.85
3 DeepSeek R10.8400.721.000.70
4 Gemini 2.5 Pro0.8300.711.000.70
5 Gemini 3 Flash0.8300.711.000.71
6 Gemini 2.5 Flash0.7860.651.000.64
7 Claude Haiku 4.50.7470.670.850.58
8 Claude Sonnet 4.50.7180.630.830.57
9 DeepSeek Chat0.7130.590.890.56
10 Gemini 2.0 Flash0.6420.470.990.47
11 Mistral Small 3.20.6310.490.900.44
12 Mistral Medium 3.10.6010.830.470.55
13 Qwen 2.5 72B0.5680.500.650.34
14 Llama 3.30.5370.440.680.33
15 GPT-4o0.5240.400.760.30
16 GPT-4o mini0.4690.310.990.30
17 Llama 3.1 70B0.4610.360.650.21
18 Claude 3 Haiku0.2910.200.510.13

Pairwise signal on OmniMath

Observed correlation
0.025
mean τ-b · 0 = no signal
Baseline correlation
-0.000
permutation null · ≈ 0
Model pairs
153
unit = pair, not model
Significant pairs
20.3%
p<0.05 after FDR · not effect size
-1.0-0.50.00.51.0Pair signal: do confidence gaps rank performance gaps? (Kendall tau-b)
Observed model pairs Base-rate-matched null Calibration-preserving null 5%-95% observed: -0.082 to 0.175

Confidence structure: the shared-difficulty factor

0PC1 = 36.7% of variance??Eigenvalue rank →Variance share19 models · 5 negative eigenvalues