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LegalBench (legal reasoning)

Unaided means: answer without the legal definition providedProbes: Prospective

Operating-point board

LegalBench (legal reasoning) · Prospective · Fβ β
#ModelFβ ?Prec ?Rec ?Task acc ?
1 Gemini 3 Pro0.9270.880.980.87
2 Mistral Medium 3.10.8630.850.880.86
3 Llama 3.1 70B0.8610.880.840.88
4 Gemini 3 Flash0.8590.890.830.88
5 Mistral Small 3.20.8540.850.860.85
6 GPT-5.20.8520.850.850.85
7 DeepSeek R10.8510.880.830.87
8 Gemini 2.5 Pro0.8220.870.780.87
9 Claude 3.5 Sonnet0.8210.890.760.86
10 Gemini 2.5 Flash0.8100.840.780.84
11 Claude Sonnet 4.50.7950.870.730.86
12 Llama 3.30.7630.880.680.88
13 Claude Haiku 4.50.7420.870.650.86
14 Gemini 2.0 Flash0.7340.810.670.85
15 DeepSeek Chat0.6740.830.570.84
16 Claude 3 Haiku0.6600.890.530.91
17 Qwen 2.5 72B0.6260.830.500.84
18 GPT-4o mini0.6000.860.460.85
19 GPT-4o0.5760.820.440.83

Pairwise signal on LegalBench

Observed correlation
0.024
mean τ-b · 0 = no signal
Baseline correlation
-0.000
permutation null · ≈ 0
Model pairs
171
unit = pair, not model
Significant pairs
25.7%
p<0.05 after FDR · not effect size
-1.0-0.50.00.51.0Pair signal: do confidence gaps rank performance gaps? (Kendall tau-b)
Observed model pairs Base-rate-matched null Calibration-preserving null 5%-95% observed: -0.060 to 0.127

Confidence structure: the shared-difficulty factor

0PC1 = 36.4% of variance??Eigenvalue rank →Variance share19 models · 1 negative eigenvalue