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Mistral Small 3.2

Appears in 6 benchmarksMean lean (confidence − pass rate): +0.216/6 benchmarks lean overconfident (prospective probe)

Positioning spread

0.000.250.500.751.00SQuAD (factual recall)MMLU-Pro (knowledge)LegalBench (legal reasoning)MathBench (competition math)OmniMath (advanced math)SciCode (scientific code)performanceconfidence (red gap = overconfident)
Performance vs. confidence for Mistral Small 3.2, per benchmark (prospective probe).
BenchmarkTask accConfidenceF₁Leans
SQuAD (factual recall)0.440.610.67+0.17 overconfident
MMLU-Pro (knowledge)0.390.900.57+0.51 overconfident
LegalBench (legal reasoning)0.850.860.85+0.01 calibrated
MathBench (competition math)0.870.980.92+0.11 overconfident
OmniMath (advanced math)0.440.820.63+0.38 overconfident
SciCode (scientific code)0.410.470.56+0.06 overconfident

In the full cloud

-3-3-2-2-1-100112233Performance z-score within benchmark/probe →Confidence z-score →
Mistral Small 3.2 conditions all other model/condition points equal relative confidence and pass rate

Pairwise footprint

Match accuracy controls for the performance base-rate gap
Mistral Small 3.2 pairs
18/ 171
Mistral Small 3.2 mean tau
+0.038
All-pairs mean
+0.037
Mistral Small 3.2 p<0.05
8(44.4%)
-1.0-0.50.00.51.0Pair signal: do confidence gaps rank performance gaps? (Kendall tau-b)
all model pairs (observed) base-rate-matched null calibration-preserving null Mistral Small 3.2 pair (filled = p<0.05) Mistral Small 3.2 mean all-pairs mean
vs Mistral Medium 3.1 → Compare with anything →